What are property prices doing ? It's hard to get a consistent picture as each report you see is looking at different periods of time and different data:
- Year on Year
- Real Terms v Inflation Adjusted
- Month on Month
- Asking Prices verses Sold Prices
- National verses Regional
To keep it simple and looking at
- BCP District Only
- Average Sold Prices Only
Prices hit their peak last October and have fallen
- 3.5% up to May 23
- and approx 5% up to July 23.
We don't have the Land Registry data yet up to Jul, we only have Mortgage Lender data, but that's not for completed sales.
So in 10 months (since the peak last Oct) the Average Sold Price in our area is down 5%.
The 2008 Crash was 18% down in 18 Months so 2023 is hardly a crash. Let's call it a correction.
The Year on Year or 12 month Change in Prices looks worse. This is because the % growth in prices in the 12 months up to Oct 22 was booming. The market was red hot. But the 12 month change up to May 23 is a completely different start and end point, much cooler. The graph shows the trend in the 12 Month Change in Prices back to 2006.
Are we at the bottom ?
We don't have the same factors and ingredients that lead to the 2008 crash. At Clarkes we are forecasting the 2023 'Correction' will be no deeper than 9%.
Prices have fallen more sharply since April this year so we may hit 9% very soon. This could well be the bottom. October 2023 would be 12 months of 'Correction'.
Demand remains very high, infact a pent up demand is building once again. Affordability is the issue for the market, not demand. So once mortgage rates stabalise and even come down a little buyer activity will increase and prices will stop falling. All eyes are now on Inflation and Mortgage rates.